US consumers slashed spending by a sharp 0.3 percent in September in the face of an intense financial market storm that is tipping the economy into recession, government data showed Friday.
A Commerce Department report said the drop in spending — which accounts for two-thirds of US economic activity — came even as incomes rose 0.2 percent.
The decline in spending was the steepest since June 2004, according to officials, and sharper than the average 0.2 percent decline expected by private economists. Adjusted for inflation, the drop was a steeper 0.4 percent.
The income gain was a bit more than the consensus forecast of a 0.1 percent rise, but inflation-adjusted incomes were up just 0.1 percent.
The monthly report was no surprise, since it came a day after the government report on July-September gross domestic product (GDP) showing an annualized 3.1 percent decline in consumer spending in the quarter, the biggest drop since 1980.
The sharp drop in consumer spending drove third-quarter GDP into a 0.2 percent contraction, confirming predictions that the world’s biggest economy is heading into a deeper recession.
The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Janet Yellen, speaking Wednesday after the release of the GDP report, said that “for the fourth quarter, it appears likely that the economy is contracting significantly. Mainly for this reason, inflationary risks have diminished greatly.”
John Ryding at RDQ Economics said that although Friday’s data on consumer spending and incomes was “old news — in the sense that the data are already embedded in the third-quarter GDP decline — it underscores that we are in a consumer recession.”
Ryding underlined that real consumer spending had declined at a 3.9 percent annualized rate in the past three months and predicted another sharp decline in the fourth quarter, when retailers realize the bulk of their earnings in the holiday shopping season.
Brian Bethune, US economist at IHS Global Insight said that “conditions for consumer spending in the fourth quarter are not expected to improve, with further downward pressure on employment, consumer confidence and net household worth. As a result, we expect another sharp quarterly decline in real consumer spending.”
An inflation index linked to the report, the personal consumption expenditure index, increased 0.1 percent and the core PCE index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2 percent.
In August headline inflation fell “less than” 0.1 percent and core PCE rose 0.2 percent, the department said in revised estimates.
The Federal Reserve, which uses the PCE reading to monitor inflationary pressures, is now focused on the slowing economy as it faces the stiff headwinds of the worst global credit crisis in seven decades and a real-estate sector slump.
The Fed slashed its key interest rate by a half point for the second time this month Wednesday, to a historic low of 1.0 percent, in a bid to unblock credit flows and stimulate growth.
The savings rate rose to 1.3 percent of disposable income in September as consumers slammed their wallets shut in the face of falling home prices, rising unemployment and growing financial turmoil.
The Commerce Department sharply lowered its estimate of the August savings rate to 0.8 percent, from 1.9 percent.
The effects of a massive government financial rescue package that sent tens of billions of tax rebate to boost spending faded. The government said a total 106.7 billion dollars in tax rebates were distributed in the 2008 fiscal year that ended September 30.
The majority of rebates were sent out from late April to mid-July.
